News

Copper explorers in the Americas are sitting pretty thanks to soaring prices

• Copper price hits +US$13,000/t this month
• Sector sees M&A activity from majors like Glencore and BHP
• Price moves bode well for explorers in the Americas like Buxton Resource

Turns out Citi’s US$13,000/t copper forecast for the second quarter of 2026 hit a little early.

Prices soared to a new record of $13,387.50/t earlier this month before settling down to $12,803/t on Monday according to the London Metal Exchange.

The red metal already gained momentum late last year, hitting US$12,000/t after its largest annual dollar increase in at least a decade, according to BMI.

Hopes for stronger US economic growth and a sustained 5% GDP growth rate in China, now accounting for close to 60% of refined copper consumption, supported stronger demand for the commodity.

The run was also heavily influenced by production downgrades from companies like Teck Resources, Codelco, Anglo American and Ivanhoe Mines, and the mudslide incident that sent Freeport’s massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia into mothballs.

Not to mention, a strike at Capstone Copper’s (ASX:CSC) Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has renewed fears of disruptions.

US rhetoric around potential copper tariffs has added to price pressure.

Last month, ANZ’s Daniel Hynes said in a note that easing monetary policy was boosting sentiment after a third straight US rate cut this week. Only one more cut has been plotted by officials next year, but money markets are pricing in two, he noted.

“The Fed delivered a widely expected cut and upgraded its growth forecast for the US economy. It now expects growth to hit 2.3% next year, up from its previous target of 1.8%,” Hynes said.

“The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand.

“This comes as the new demand centres emerge. Traders remain concerned that supply may be impacted by the ongoing pull of metal into the US, driven by concerns about a US tariff on refined metal following a review of the sector.”

 

M&A puts spotlight on Americas

Against this backdrop, M&A among majors to boost copper production and growth opportunities has been supercharged.

And the real action has focused on the Americas, where the world’s largest copper operations are based.

In December, Glencore outlined plans to grow output to 1.6Mt by 2035, much of that in Chile after a planned lift from 810-870,000t in 2026 to 1Mt in 2028.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) plans to hit 1Mtpa by 2030, up from 860-875,000t in 2025.

The majors recently confirmed speculation they are in live discussions on a $300bn scrip tie-up.

That would see them gazump BHP (ASX:BHP) as the world’s biggest miner by market cap and close in on its position as the world’s top copper producer.

BHP itself is ramping up output, lifting guidance to 1.9-2Mt in FY26 at its quarterly results on Tuesday and counts as the world’s largest producer.

The firm’s biggest M&A moves recently have seen it acquire OZ Minerals and pay US$2bn for a half stake in the Filo Del Sol and Josemaria projects in Argentina’s Vicuña district alongside Lundin Mining. But BHP has also taken multiple stabs at Anglo American, which owns large, tier-1 copper mines in Chile and Peru.

In other major copper moves, SolGold announced a $1.2bn takeover by top investor Jiangxi Copper last month, in a deal which gives Jiangxi control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador’s Imbabura province.

China’s CMOC paid C$581m last year to acquire Lumina Gold, owner of the Cangrejos gold-copper project in Ecuador, while Fortescue (ASX:FMG) announced a C$139m offer to mop up the rest of Alta Copper it doesn’t own, as it looks to diversify from iron ore with the Cañariaco project in Peru.

 

What’s happening on the small end of town?

With that in mind, we thought we’d cast our eyes over some of the juniors who could find the next major copper mines in North, South and Central America.

Buxton Resources (ASX:BUX)

The company has a joint venture with IGO (ASX:IGO) over the Copper Wolf project in the US, which consists of lode mining claims and mineral exploration permits in Yavapai County, Arizona.

The project has multiple historical resource estimates available that confirm the presence of a large Laramide porphyry copper-molybdenum system.

It’s also located in one of the most prolifically endowed copper belts in the world, yet it has not seen any drilling since the early 1990s.

IGO had previously sole-funded a drilling program that resulted in exceptional intersections of porphyry mineralisation with assay results including 405.38m at 0.35% copper and 0.05% molybdenum.

The plan going forward is to assess the feasibility of undertaking geophysical surveys and planning for drilling activities.

 

Belararox (ASX:BRX)

The company is firing up diamond drilling at the Toro Central prospect of its TMT project in Argentina’s Vicuña province.

The new copper hotspot is the home of BHP and Lundin’s enormous Filo Del Sol and Josemaria discoveries – set to become a multi-billion dollar copper, gold and silver development – as well as fellow Lundin company NGEx Minerals’ Lunahuasi.

BRX is one of the few juniors not connected to the Lundins who are active in the region, which has been fired up by massive discoveries and enticing policy for foreign investors in Javier Milei’s Argentina.

Drilling at Toro Central will target a broad, near-surface epithermal system defined by a strong, continuous IP chargeability anomaly extending over around 1.4km.

It is interpreted to strengthen toward the Toro South prospect, aligning with historical mineralised intercepts and defining a largely untested, highly prospecting shallow epithermal target extending between the two prospects.

 

Norfolk Metals (ASX:NFL)

NFL recently intercepted 2.2% copper at its Carmen copper project (CCP) in Chile, a project host to multiple mineralised targets over an extensive strike length with intensive copper mineralisation from surface.

It hosts a foreign copper oxide mineral resource estimate of 5.6Mt at 0.6% copper and is also just 16km to the northeast of the CCP is the Nueva Unión joint venture between Teck and Newmont.

The company is aiming to establish the project as a low-cost, high-margin, value-accretive copper heap leaching operation producing copper cathode at the mine gate.

A phase 2 diamond drilling program is now being planned and will include step-out drilling of the Higueritas Belt, funded by a recent $2.1m placement at 10c per share.

In the meantime, a surface mapping and rock chip sampling program is underway and around 1000m of historical DDH core displaying mineralisation has been quarter-cut and submitted for assay analysis with results expected in the coming weeks.

 

 

AusQuest (ASX:AQD)

AQD this month reported that diamond and RC drilling has expanded the scale of copper mineralisation at its Cangallo project in Peru.

Recent diamond and reverse circulation drilling has significantly increased the size of the porphyry copper-gold system(s) at Cangallo. • Diamond drilling extended the mineralised vein system to a depth of over 800m in the area covered by Stage 1 and 2 drilling.

Meanwhile, Stage 3 RC drilling intersected visual copper oxides and sulphide mineralisation (chalcopyrite) more than 500m south of the earlier drilling.

The company says the new copper discovery is just getting bigger and bigger, with the system now extended by drilling for more than 1km – and there’s room for even more growth with more RC assays expected this month.

 

Hot Chili (ASX:HCH)

The company recently reported that the first diamond hole at its La Verde copper-gold discovery in Chile exceeded expectations by returning an exceptionally thick 529m intersection of grading 0.41% copper and 0.21g/t gold from a down-hole depth of 41m to the end of hole.

This includes two higher grade zones of 146m at 0.6% copper and 0.3g/t gold from 70m and 66m at 0.45% copper and 0.31g/t gold from 295m.

The result is hugely positive for Hot Chili’s goal of growing resources at the Costa Fuego project and boosting the scale of future operations.

There are already early signs that the rest of the second phase drill program will contribute to this objective given that all six holes completed to date have intersected porphyry-style copper mineralisation beyond the previous RC drill limit.

Costa Fuego is one of the few large scale copper developments in Chile not held by a major, advantaged by its low-lying position near the Andean country’s coast.

A PFS last year suggested the mine would produce 116,000tpa copper equivalent over its 20 year life, including 95,000tpa copper and 48,000tpa gold for its first 14 years, at an all in sustaining cost of US$1.85/lb.

At a copper price of US$5.30/lb, the project would boast a post tax NPV of US$2.2bn and IRR of 30%.

 

Mammoth Minerals (ASX:M79)

Mammoth owns the Skyline project in Canada where it’s building a pipeline of drill targets for testing, as well as the high-grade Excelsior and Bella gold projects in Nevada.

Located just 35km from the 4.2Moz Goldfield Caldera in a similar setting, the move led to a $7.5m placement to accelerate exploration at the newly acquired sites.

But M79 has skin in the South American copper game too.

Its Picha project in Peru is part of BHP’s Xplor program, providing access to the mining giant’s exploration expertise and potentially drawing the Antamina owner in as an investor down the line if it likes what it sees.

Last quarter geophysics helped define deep architecture below the Anta Q’ilqa target – essentially flagging a potential source of the copper fluids seen across the project.

 

FireFly Metals (ASX:FFM)

On the other side of the Americas FFM has the Green Bay Copper-Gold Project in Newfoundland, Canada.

The project hosts 50.4Mt of measured and indicated resources at 2pc for 1.016Mt copper equivalent and 29.3Mt of inferred resources at 2.5% for 722,000t copper equivalent.

The company is busy drilling, above and below, with six rigs underground targeting resource growth, infill, upgrades, geophysics and discoveries.

On the surface, three rigs are rigs targeting regional discovery at extensive geophysical targets, Tilt Cove and Little Deer VMS areas.

And while all that’s underway, a preliminary economic assessment is scheduled for the first half of the year, as well as upscaled mine production scenarios.